Sold AMD

I knew it was a mistake going into it and should never have bought that second round of AMD. I know that AMD doesn't have a lot of cash and a new chip takes a while to see revenue so it must be that a lot of people wonder if AMD can even survive in this economy. I almost put in a stop loss at 2.10 last night and this morning it was at 2.00. I put in a stop loss to sell everything at 1.94 and it triggered late in the day. I fully expect it to bounce back at some point, but I'm through with this market and was done with it at the end of November. I'm really glad I sold out then as things are a lot lower now then when I sold. Everyone says this is a long term market, and that $10,000 invested in 1929 would have been worth $6,000 in 1935, but the market didn't bottom out until 1932 and what if you invested your $10,000 then? It would be worth $25,000!!! Not to mention that a lot of stocks went to zero and shareholders almost always get zeroed out in a bankruptcy. Long term is a way for others to get you to help stabalize the market while they play the game. Sure, Warren Buffet is buying a lot of stuff, but he's making deals we can never get and getting all kinds of options and preferred stock. He's in a different league and can lose a few billion without any sort of pain.

So, I'm out of the market (and mostly have been since mid-NOV early OCT) except for a little STMP, the ashes of FNM, FMC and a tiny bit of JAVA just to get financial reports from a company I used to love until Jonathan Schwartz messed up Java really badly (by bloating it and ignoring client apps) and then got the CEO spot to everyone's disappointment. Other than those, I'm out for a while. It took almost 3 years for the market to bottom in 1932 after the 29 crashes so I don't expect this one to take any less time. I'm waiting until this feels like a long term market again...

There must be something wrong..?

My account keeps going up, like crazy for the past two weeks. As of today I'm up 11.2% for the year and just two weeks ago I was up 2% and two weeks before that I was -2%. No really, this is how it usually works. My account takes huge swings and as long as more of them are up than down, the long term aspects are positive. Also, you have to be willing to take some big downs (like my holdings in AMD, DRIV and GE) and even miss some opportunities (like selling Apple/APPL) too early.

For now I'm happy with my holdings and I'm sticking with them. DRIV and AMD seem to be returning. GE is a mess, but at least it has stableized. If it has more credit issues I'm selling it and I still have a stop on it a few points below where it sits now.

You have to believe in the companies you hold. Especially the leadership. Until six months ago I had been holding Motorola at around 18. It is a stock that I watch. I liked it even more because the CEO was Ed Zander who was an exec at Sun Microsystems when I was there. I had met him briefly a few times on a sales call and at some training/sales meetings. I really liked the way he worked so when he took the CEO job at Motorola I bought in. The stock didn't change much and when I learned he had left (that Icahn guy causes a lot more problems than he solves) I sold the stock. I didn't actually sell it because Ed Zander left, I sold it because there was a leadership hole and organizations without good leaders don't do well (especially when Icahn is stiring the pot). Now it's sitting at 10 (Icahn must really like to lose money..?) and I don't have much interest in it. Mostly because I don't watch it as closely and I don't understand what their strategy is going to be. You can't say enough about a hot performing company, or a company with a great leader. Both are signs of a stock to hold and most of my current holdings fit that bill.

Also I should have sold all my Sun Microsystems (JAVA) when Jonathan Schwartz became CEO since I never liked his strategy with Java (turn it into the biggest piece of bloatware imaginable because we have to be all things to all people) and from what I could see he was devisive with people. I could have told you (and should have told myself) that a devisive leader was the last thing Sun needed. The stock did a reverse split (annoying), renamed itself to JAVA (very annoying) and is now continuing to spiral down to the price it was before the reverse split (he needs to be held accountable). Sun needs a new leader and I'm only holding a very small amount in my account so I can watch it.

Anyway, here's to good leaders and my account being up 11.2% for the year. I expect it will probably drop back down to 5% before it goes up more, but for now I'm pretty happy. :-)