Why DRIV

A few years ago DRIV got hammered hard when it was rumored that Symantec, their biggest customer would choose a different provider. They did not and if you bought in after the plunge I think it was 100% profit. This news today:

Symantec beats estimates with sharp profit gain.

should bring back some memories and give you a reason to like DRIV. In any case, DRIV is well diversified with thousands of customers, so even if Symantec did choose another provider it would be far from a death blow.

Another Sony/SNE purchase

I made another 1.5% purchase of Sony/SNE this morning at 46.19 It is up and I'm half kicking myself for not setting up the 3% purchase last night. So I will buy it in two increments today. My cost average is now at 43.88 for the 8.5% that I am holding in my account. Looking back, my purchases all line up in order as the prices has been climbing so I should have gone with my gut and made the 10% purchase back on 3/31.

Sony, GTA4 and may buy more shares

I almost bought another 3% Sony/SNE to take my total holdings to 10% of my account. I liked this article on the console shootout. and agree with Sony in this regard since I would be one of those PS2 owners who would finally like to purchase a PS3 and some of my earlier posts related similar stores of other PS2 owners.

Sony's also expecting "Grand Theft Auto IV" to drive sales of its PlayStation 3 console, although Steinberg is quick to point out that it's just an "exclamation mark" in its 2008 lineup.

Over the years, only a few brands really affected sales of the Playstation 2, Steinberg says. "Grand Theft Auto" happens to be one of those titles. Sony's cherished hope: PS2 owners, who have been waiting for "Grand Theft Auto IV" before they traded up for a next-generation console, will now head to the stores--but will stick with the Sony brand.

The fact that is not mentioned in this article is that Metal Gear Solid is waiting in the wings for a June launch. To me this is a one two punch that will finally make the PS3 a more popular console than the PS2 and get a lot of people to upgrade. Add the Blue-Ray win on top of that and I think that Sony hit a grand slam home run that no one has noticed yet and the stock is hovering at a two year low, always a great time to buy.

Another thing to think about is if you buy an XBox360 you get an HD-DVD player which is now only useful for XBox games and you have to buy a separate bluyray player to get next generation movie content so the PS3 is actually cheaper than an XBox in the long run.

I'll probably purchase that last 3% tomorrow to make SNE a 10% holding in my account. This would be a big holding and I rarely get to or go above 10% unless I really believe I have a large upside with limited risk. This fits that in my outlook.

TTWO, today is the day

The reason I'm holding TTWO all comes down to today. The headline from yesterday, "Will GTA IV Be The Biggest Game Ever?" sort of sums it up for me. The fact that Yahoo has a special site for the game and everyone thinks it has a chance to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time and could potentially beat The Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End which brought in $401 in it's six day opening. I'm very happy that the EA deal didn't go through and I've been anticipating this week for a long time.

Sony/SNE Purchase

The Sony/SNE purchase went through this morning at 45.58. That makes SNE about 7.1% of my portfolio.

Back from Vacation. SNE and IBM

Back from vacation and liking what happend with Sony while I was gone, up about 8%. That limit order didn't fire at 44.02 like I thought it would. Not sure what happened, probably some amateur mistake. I just placed another order for that added 1.5% at 45.92. The markets are now closed so it will go through tomorrow.

Read this article saying there would be Big Problems At IBM, but I'm not holding IBM as a massive growth stock, I've got those in SNE, TTWO and ATVI. I'm holding it as something that will maintain value in a troubled economy.

SNE limit order

I decided to split the difference and create a +1.5% of my portfolio. limit order on SNE for 44.02. I want it to go over 44, but not necessarily trigger with other 44 orders if there are any. Mostly this just comes from my stop order strategy of beating others to the punch, but I don't have a good reason for doing it on the upside. This will put SNE and 8% of my portfolio.

On Vacation

I'm on vacation next week and will not be posting. I'm very happy with where my holdings stand right now so I'm not worried. I have one stop in on GE just in case it decides to tank any more. I've got 9.5% of my account in cash which I would like to do something with, but I'm not sure where to put it. There has been a ton of trading in my account over the past month which is competely abnormal so I'm looking forward to letting this stuff ride again for a while.

SNE did some nice movement today on news that video game sales are up. I can't wait till people start figuring out that the PS3 is really going to be the platform of choice soon. This article sumarizes the console game industry right now and I like the quote.

PS3 sales doubled from a year earlier, and Sony said new and upcoming games such as its "Gran Turismo 5 Prologue" racing game and Konami's (9766.T) "Metal Gear Solid 4" stealth action title would drive sales in the coming months.

Doubling sales from a year ago is just the inflection point where the curve points upwards and doesn't stop. SNE looks very close to crossing the 50 day moving average at which point I will buy some more. It is currently 5.3% of my account and I'm willing to take it up to 10% when it crosses the moving average. As I write this I guess that price is around 44 and I could place a limit order at that price to buy another 3%. I may do that before I leave on vacation.

The TTWO and ERTS thing is still playing out and I'm glad I'm holding it and hope ERTS doesn't win the bid. Lowering the price doesn't make any sense to me, but if they want it they need to pay more. This would be like Yahoo trying to buy Google when it was really starting to ramp up. They could almost aford it and should have paid a big premium, but a few years down the road it was a completely different story. This is how it will play out if ERTS doesn't win the buyout.

Otherwize, my account is sitting at +1.5% for the year which is good seeing that GE tanked this week and the market has been volitile. I was +2% and -2% this week so my account is swinging wildly as usual. Par for the course. You have to remember, I am diversified elsewhere and this is an agressive account.

Placed GE Stop

I finally decided to at least place a stop order in on GE in case it decided to slide even more. I put it at 31.78 and I'm selling all (~9%) in my account if it drops to that number. I came up with that number looking at this three month chart. Which shows the low at 31.70 on March 10 and 31.75 on April 14. I wanted to be a little above those marks thinking maybe other people would choose those as their sell point and I wanted to jump the gun a little if it headed that way. I may still sell this in the near term if I see more of this type of infighting in the leadership or if I see more bad news about possible spill over from the credit crisis.

GE Sneezed and didn't bounce back

I'm really changing my stance on GE.

GE: Quintessential American Finance Company

No bounce back?

I was holding it because it is a solid big cap manufacturer and not thinking how much of a hold they have in the finance arena. The fact that it didn't bounce back even a little while the market made a huge bounce is very troubling to me. Especially since other big caps (IBM/Intel) announced great earnings. This tells me that something else is going on here and maybe the credit crisis is about to pummel them. I will probably sell in the next few days if it goes down any more or doesn't come back a little. Right now I'm down 7% which isn't all that bad, but if it is part of the credit mess things could get much worse very quickly.

IBM looks to continue streak with earnings report

Market watch article on IBM.

I'm holding IBM for three reasons.

1. I think it's a good hedge against inflation and the dollars since it is a globally diverse company.
2. I am trying to hold larger cap stocks because of the turbulance in the marketplace and the fact that most large caps have not risen with the market over the past 5 or so years.
3. I work there and like the way the company operates. I arrived there in a buy out of the company I worked for and expected it to be a really bad experience, but overall it has been completely positive and so I'm a believer.

Looks like the price hit $119.33 the last time I looked.

Sony PS3 sales will soon ramp up

Videogames Keep Olympic Shot-Putter Busy

This is what I'm talking about when I give reasons for having recently put 5% of my IRA into SNE (Sony).

Although he's a devoted gamer, Hoffa hasn't made the jump to next-gen systems yet. "Once I find four games on the next system that I really like, then I'll buy the system," he says. "The PS3 is a little bit newer system, so there's not quite as many cool games for it yet."

He may change his mind when Metal Gear Solid 4 is released, however. Hoffa says the series' blending of story with gameplay is what makes him such a huge fan.

The PS3 was way ahead the technology curve and there really wasn't a good reason to buy one. Now, some games (Grand Theft Auto 4 launching April 29 and Metal Gear Solid launching June 6) are finally catching up with the amazing PS3 platform and the BlueRay drive as an added bonus. Why buy a BlueRay Player for $399 when you can get a PS3 for $399? It is just going to add up to a lot of future PS3 sales for Sony.

Here is a fool article stating that GameStop is a better buy than a console maker because the Wii beat the PS3 in February. All I'm saying is that the playing field changed drastically in February when all the movie studios dropped HD/DVD for BlueRay and the next generation games requiring a PS3 that are finally hitting the market.

Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) could hurt U.S. credit rating

In case you are following me blindly, which I doubt anyone is since there isn't much traffic here, this is just to prove that this is all basically betting.

Articles like these: Fannie,Freddie could hurt U.S. Credit and Fannie, Freddie regulator sees perilous road ahead, still worry me, but if the U.S. has to bail out these GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises), which they would since they are "Government Sponsored", then it doesn't really matter where your money is (unless it's in Gold, Silver and commodities), it is going to hurt and hurt bad. My bet is that the home credit crisis has played itself out and these two companies are set to fill in some hug gaps left by some fallen giants.

This quote from the second article:

Their market share of total originations grew to 75.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 from 37.4% in 2006, OFEHO said.

shows that they are definitely taking up that slack, let's just hope they are checking the credit and the paperwork of those they are giving the loans to. They couldn't be dumb enough to do what got them all into this mess, could they?

Link between war and credit crisis

This is a great article about the ongoing debate on a link between the war and the credit crisis.

Those price increases are self-perpetuating, Stiglitz argues. Oil-rich Persian Gulf states are so awash in money that they are not sure what to do with it all. By holding back oil production, they make more off what they do produce and keep their greatest asset -- oil -- in the ground as they search for ways to spend their cash.

That cash, through state-owned sovereign wealth funds, has flowed into stocks, bonds and other investments, creating incentives for lenders to offer low-interest loans, many of which have now gone sour.

But that is only one factor, by Stiglitz's accounting. The federal government has sunk deeply into debt, first with tax cuts, then with accelerating war expenditures that have easily topped half a trillion dollars. That limited the government's ability to keep the economy on track through tax cuts or domestic investments, so the Federal Reserve Board used low interest rates and the free flow of money to keep the economy growing. Cheap credit sparked rash loans, a housing bubble and the current crisis.

If you go into debt to allow yourself to spend more in hopes that your spending will fix your debt problems you are in for a tailspin. It just seems that our government has been printing more money for the past 30 years as a way to alleviate budget and economic crisis's. That doesn't seem like good policy to me.

I think investment and economic development is good policy, but that seems to have turned into giving your political friends money for development that doesn't always develop anything. I don't have a solution, but a little more honesty and openness at the top would lead to a lot more honesty and openness in the general population. Leadership through smoke and mirrors and divisiveness has lead to more and more of the same and that is 'waste'. We used to be a country where people cared about each other. That was what made us great. Now we just look for ways to own a fancy car no matter the cost to those around us.

AAPL stop triggered

I had placed a stop on AAPL (Apple) a few weeks ago at 147.50 and 145.50. Each one selling half of my AAPL holdings. The first one triggered, then the price went up. The second one fired this morning. I love AAPL and have been holding it for a year. I don't usually buy and sell, but I'm expecting this to do down some more and I'm planning on picking it up again later. I think my buy back in price is 125-130.

GE drops

GE took a big drop this morning after announcing an earnings of 44 cents a share, seven cents short of expectations (does some quick math 14% below expectations). The share price dropped 12%. I'm still holding it and it did drag my account down significantly, but I'm not willing to sell in fear. The whole economy is taking hits and it's no surprise that companies are going to report lower earnings. For me it's just a matter of where to keep my money and during tough financial times it seems to be either big chip stocks or commodities like gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Since those are at record highs and I already took a health profit I'm sticking with the big cap stocks. At least for now. One thing I have noticed, that after big drops like this stocks usually come back pretty quicly the next day so maybe I'll buy more!

I was already up 5% since I purchased it last year so now I'm down 7% on GE. Not a bad number for me during a sketchy economy.

They say this is the biggest drop since 10/19/1987, but if you look at this chart it doesn't even register.

My overall account is at -1.4% for the year now when it was up 2% a week ago. It's always a wild ride, hang on and don't be afraid. I was down 10% for the year at one point in February I think.

TTWO articles

I saw two great articles on Take-Two (TTWO) today.

The Cheapest Stocks I know

A tale of two botched buyouts

Both reiterate my BUY rating on TTWO. I just hope the EA (ERTS) takeover doesn't happen since as I've probably said, GTA4 revenue will probably be severly diluted on an EA balance sheet and as an investor I want what is best for my investment. If EA does somehow complete the buyout I'll probably have to sell since I don't believe in EA management any longer. It will be time to find another up and comer in the game industry.

Market seeing red

The market has seen red for two days now and my account is back at even for the year. Am I changing anything? No, but I am eyeing more Sony (SNE) since it dropped back down to just over 40, but I told myself not to pick up any more until it crosses the 50 day moving average.

Why so much interest in Sony since it's at a two year low and under so much downward pressure? As I said before, the Blue-Ray win and the PS3 will finally start taking off. The biggest boost will be from Grand Theft Auto IV which will ship on April 29th. This is the first huge blockbuster title that will only be available on XBox360 and PS3. Meaning that if you want to play it, you need one or the other. Plenty of people have waited out the console war and want to play this game when it launches (me included) and I don't think the XBox360 is attractive any longer as a console. At least not to gamers like me. The fact that the PS3 also gets you into the next gen DVD (XBox 360 puts you in the HDDVD/betamax camp) is a huge incentive. I expect this single game to drive a lot of PS3 sales. You still have 20 more days to start accumulating SNE.

I was holding ERTS (Electronic Arts) for most of last year and finally sold it. I almost made some money on it if I just wouldn't have held it so long and taken my own advice and sold it in early January. I still think they have a lot of issues in moving forward. I just hope the TTWO deal doesn't go through because I want to reap the benefits of GTA4 sales, not have it lost on some red ERTS balance sheet. The longer TTWO is able to delay the ERTS take over attempt the better.

Also, AMD didn't go down today and remained steady. That tells me that it bottomed and at some point they'll get their groove back on and start selling some chips. To me, holding stocks that sit at their bottom is a lot better than holding something expensive that has a lot more capability to go down. It's sort of like stashing your money in the mattress, but at least it doesn't go down in value. Sometimes all I hope for is that things don't go down!

Considering AMD

I purchased AMD last year thinking the new Barcelona chips were going to put them back on track against Intel. Instead it dropped like a rock and I don't watch it close enough to catch it.

Last night they announced further bad news with layoffs. The first should drive the price down, the second should drive it up so it does seem to have balanced out, although it dropped 5% it is still hovering at what I think is a bottom. So, I like the company and think they have stumble a lot recently, but it also seems to be at a bottom so any good news will make it jump. I'm still on the fence and going to hold it a while longer. I should buy some more to lower my cost average, but I'm in deep enough at this point.

Why hold DRIV?

You can see that I am down 30% in DRIV and might be wondering why I'm still holding it. I think DRIV is a good solid company and I've made a lot of money on it in the past. My biggest ride was in 2004 when it went from the teens to the 30s and I was holding it as about 30% of my portfolio. I sold off after that and bought back in after it seemed to stabalize around 30 and it jumped again to over 50 and I sold it off. I kept watching it as it held just a little over 60 for over a year. When it dropped below 60 I purchased a bunch thinking it was due for another jump and it fell. I still think it is a great stock and solid company so I continue to hold it. What I should do is to buy some more at the lower price to reduce my cost average, but I'm in deep enough at this point and I'm just seeing it as a current value, not a current loss. I'm holding it for the long term.

Current Holdings

Just to catch up with my account, these are my current holdings.

SYMBOL	Paid	Cur	Account Pct	Gain/Loss Pct
ATVI	13.44	27.40	26%	104%
TTWO	16.18	25.61	18%	56%
GE	34.70	37.56	9%	8%
DRIV	47.72	33.48	8%	-30%
IBM	117.08	115.76	7%	-1%
FNM	24.52	30.34	6%	24%
SNE	42.25	41.90	6%	0%
FRE	23.11	27.60	5%	19%
AMD	13.69	6.23	4%	-54%
EDD	19.85	17.18	3%	-14%
AAPL	90.10	153.08	3%	70%
STMP	12.98	10.96	2%	-15%
USG	46.99	37.10	1%	-22%
TIVO	5.89	8.96	1%	53%
JAVA	17.27	16.00	1%	-8%

YTD Results: +2%

I probably need to talk about why I'm still holding AMD and DRIV and I'll address those in later blogs. Some might even ask why I'm still holding onto ATVI and TTWO, so I've still got a lot to write about. I did do some profit taking on ATVI a few months back.

Shaky economy and sub prime fiasco

I heard this NPR show last night on the way home and it was very very interesting. Makes me understand why I was holding GLD and SLV for the past year and really makes me more nervous that I'm no longer holding something with some tangible value.

Our Confusing Economy Explained

http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=13&prgDate=04-03-2008&view=storyview

It is a long 40 minute interview with economist Michael Greenberger who puts this stuff in really plain language that still seems a little confusing. The bottom line, was Bear Sterns the end of the trouble in the market or the canary in the coal mine?

More IBM purchased

I purchased more IBM today at 115.18 (3%) (9% total in my account). I don't think I'll buy any more, but I'll be holding this for a year or so. At least that is the plan.

Nervous about SNE but still buying

I bought another 3% block of SNE today at $42.25.

In case you are considering following me on SNE, make sure you look before you leap. This chart really scares me.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SNE&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50&a=&c=

This article should give you pause as well. I don't agree with his view on the playstation, but I do agree on the walkman issue. The fact that he didn't even mention blue ray makes me think he is incompetent.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tech-strategies-gain-ibm-bullish/story.aspx?guid=%7B1348FB57%2DC81D%2D4C9A%2D8D5F%2D665828D751BC%7D

Feel free to call me completely insane if I buy any more before the price crosses the 50 day moving average. I'm not sure the 3% purchase this morning was a good idea. I think I should have waited for it to cross the moving average.

Sold some AAPL

I sold off half of the AAPL I had. I placed a stop on it two days ago about a half point below where it was sitting and it triggered this morning. I still want to hold it, I just think it has been a little over heated and think it may drop back to 125 then zoom up again. Not my normal trading mode, I usually like to trade and hold for long periods.

Trade price: 147.50 (3%)

Still have 3% remaining in my account.

Finally sold SUNW/JAVA

I've been holding SUNW/JAVA (Sun Microsystems) since the dot com boom and bust. I used to work there and loved the company and have been holding it for all the wrong reasons. It was a 7% investement which is now less than 1%. I loved Scott McNeally, but can't stand the current ceo (Jonathan Schwartz) and will not even link to him from this blog. He is a devisive leader who excludes smart people from his decisions and made a mess with Java when he led the software group. I have no idea why Scott hand picked him as CEO? The best leaders are inclusive not devisive. Anyway, I wish they had a better leader, that is the whole problem with the company.

In 2000 I called a broker to tell him I wanted to sell all my SUNW (a 45% holding) and he talked me out of it. Within a month it was 1/3 of what it had been at. I fired the broker and my account has still not reached that peak again (I'm still over 14% per year since inception). I'm sure this is a common story. If things go as planned, I'll reach that peak again in 2010.

SNE purchases

I made two SNE purchases to day at 41.31 and then at 41.00. One was a 2% purchase and the other was a 1% purchase.

TGIC losses

I sold off my TGIC today.

I had thought it was a mortgage business, but didn't realize it was mortgage insurance. Duh. Should have looked closer. My FNM and FMC are doing really well as expected, but this just tanked because they did some serious wobbling this morning so I decided to just take my beating and get out.

Bought: 5.12
Sold: 3.77
Shares: 2% of my portfolio
Loss: -33.30%

Good thing I was watching this one closely. We'll see how it does in the coming days, but I don't think I'll buy into it.