Sony/SNE up sharply

Sony SNE is up sharply today (+4.02% at 50.47). I looked at the news and there is nothing to explain it yet. A short blurb about falling oil prices and the falling yen, but it is much to big of a jump for that. Maybe people are finally starting to figure out that the Ps3/BlueRay is really going to be a big home run? Just crossing the 50 barrier is good news at this point. Overall I'm up 15% on Sony.

Waiting and watching

I'm still here, I've just been letting my account ride for a while. I go through trading spurts and the most recent two months was one of the biggest I can remember. Right now I'm happing with the holdings. The account reached a high of 11.2% up for the year and dropped back down to 7.9% at the beginning of the week. It is currently sitting at 9.2% so all seems well. The biggest swings are currently caused by Activision since it is my biggest holding.

I still have to decide what to do with the cash from the GE sale. I just don't have any ideas right now and like to have some cash available when I do have an idea.

Looks like I'll have to give a monthly update tomorrow after the market close. As of today it has been a very good month.

GE stop triggered

My stop on GE triggered today at 31.79 and I sold the entire amount. It closed at 31.72. It ends as an 8.5% loss for me and could have been a lot worse. I think the credit crisis (GE Capital) is effecting them a lot more than anyone is letting be known. This was something I didn't think through when I invested in it last year as a hedge against inflation. I now have 6.7% in cash to figure out what to do with. I don't have any solid ideas, but I may make another 1% purchase of EIX. I tried to make this a few weeks ago, but didn't realize that my cash had gone into the USG purchase.

As for GE, I do think it will recover, I'm just not willing to take any more chances with it. Anyone involved in credit, that hasn't corrected is suspect at this point.

Over all, my account has pulled back a little bit from the most recent gain, but it is holding most of it pretty well. The GE loss is hopefully just a footnote since it wasn't a big holding.

There must be something wrong..?

My account keeps going up, like crazy for the past two weeks. As of today I'm up 11.2% for the year and just two weeks ago I was up 2% and two weeks before that I was -2%. No really, this is how it usually works. My account takes huge swings and as long as more of them are up than down, the long term aspects are positive. Also, you have to be willing to take some big downs (like my holdings in AMD, DRIV and GE) and even miss some opportunities (like selling Apple/APPL) too early.

For now I'm happy with my holdings and I'm sticking with them. DRIV and AMD seem to be returning. GE is a mess, but at least it has stableized. If it has more credit issues I'm selling it and I still have a stop on it a few points below where it sits now.

You have to believe in the companies you hold. Especially the leadership. Until six months ago I had been holding Motorola at around 18. It is a stock that I watch. I liked it even more because the CEO was Ed Zander who was an exec at Sun Microsystems when I was there. I had met him briefly a few times on a sales call and at some training/sales meetings. I really liked the way he worked so when he took the CEO job at Motorola I bought in. The stock didn't change much and when I learned he had left (that Icahn guy causes a lot more problems than he solves) I sold the stock. I didn't actually sell it because Ed Zander left, I sold it because there was a leadership hole and organizations without good leaders don't do well (especially when Icahn is stiring the pot). Now it's sitting at 10 (Icahn must really like to lose money..?) and I don't have much interest in it. Mostly because I don't watch it as closely and I don't understand what their strategy is going to be. You can't say enough about a hot performing company, or a company with a great leader. Both are signs of a stock to hold and most of my current holdings fit that bill.

Also I should have sold all my Sun Microsystems (JAVA) when Jonathan Schwartz became CEO since I never liked his strategy with Java (turn it into the biggest piece of bloatware imaginable because we have to be all things to all people) and from what I could see he was devisive with people. I could have told you (and should have told myself) that a devisive leader was the last thing Sun needed. The stock did a reverse split (annoying), renamed itself to JAVA (very annoying) and is now continuing to spiral down to the price it was before the reverse split (he needs to be held accountable). Sun needs a new leader and I'm only holding a very small amount in my account so I can watch it.

Anyway, here's to good leaders and my account being up 11.2% for the year. I expect it will probably drop back down to 5% before it goes up more, but for now I'm pretty happy. :-)

Sony (SNE) posts a profit

Loving my account today. Everything is up big and I crossed a milestone I've been trying to reach for a few years now (2/3) of my pre .com crash value! Exciting, but sad at the same time. I'm sitting at +9.7% for the year.

Anyway I received this news blurb in my e-mail.

*Sony returns to profit*Sony Corp., the world's No. 2 consumer electronics maker, reported a quarterly profit of $277 million, after a loss a year ago, as it trimmed losses from its PlayStation 3 video game business. For the full fiscal 2007, Sony posted a better-than-expected profit of $3.5 billion, a record for Sony. (AP in CNNMoney.com ) However, Sony had an unexpected operating loss of $45 million in the quarter, amid losses in its financial services unit. (Reuters ) A forecast of 20 percent growth in operating income this year, including profitability at its PS3 division, sent its stock up early today. "I don't think we have to worry about Sony's game business anymore," said Naoki Fujiwara at Shinkin Asset Management. (Bloomberg )*

Isn't that what I said a few weeks ago? ("I don't think we have to worry about Sony's game business anymore")

Anyway, Here is another article.
Sony Returns to Profit, Lifting Shares

This one isn't as good and shows that Sony is struggling with swings in currency values.
Sony has 4Q profit, but expects decline this year

The analyist target estimate shown on yahoo shows a price target of 75. The price today is sitting at 49.39 with a lot of room to go. If you are going to get in you just missed one of the biggest jumps we are going to see for a while, but I expect it to continue to climb as the PS3 finally starts gaining ground. It really is an amazing piece of hardware and it is nice to finally see some games that can take advantage of it. Pair that with the fact that it is also the next generation DVD player called BlueRay (HD-DVD is now officially dead) and it is a double home run for Sony.

Watch for the next big jump when we see an increase in PS3 sales caused by the recent release of GTA4, then in June when Metal Gear Solid hits expect and even bigger increase in PS3 sales. Also, there are a bunch of blueray licensees waiting in the wings. Come on people, this isn't rocket science...

EA, Take-Two

I really like this article on why Take-Two is so valuable and why EA shouldn't get them for so cheap.

Your Money's No Good Hear, EA

I especially like the part at the end where someone finally started talking about the Activision(ATVI), Blizzard merger.

My account is sitting at an all time (post .com bust) high and feels like it is strong. Yesterday ATVI dropped a bunch, but a lot of my other holdings went up. Today a bunch of those holdings are down and ATVI is back up 3%. Both days the account has grown and I'm sitting at +7.2% for the year. I really don't like when it goes up as quickly as it has since it always means it will probably fall back some, but in this case I'm liking what I see. ATVI is sitting at 27% of my account and I'm really thinking about doing a small amount of profit taking, but I said I would wait until it reached 30% and take it back to 25%. Decisions, Decisions...

ATVI/Activision - That's what I'm talking about

I love it when a stock takes a gigantic leap forward, especially when it is my biggest holding.

Activision shares soar after 4Q results fly past estimates.

What I like most about this is that this doesn't even take into account the fact that Blizzard is becoming part of Activision. For years I wanted to invest in Blizzard, but was unwilling to do so through Vivendi since I just don't believe in the movie business at this point. Blizzard is set for another hit with the next generation of StarCraft and already has the biggest game of all time in World Of Warcraft (do the math on a game that cost $8 million to make and now has 10 million subscribers paying $15 a month). This is a stock I'm going to be holding for a while, but I may have to do a little profit taking. It is now at 25% of my account and I think that is a bit too much, but I may hold out until it is 30%, then take some of the profit out of it. Decisions, decisions...

TTWO/GTA4 - Video games don't create killers - Harvard study

A number of people have expressed concern with my own promotion of GTA4 (Grand Theft Auto 4) and investment in TTWO. Every time I have heard this it has been from someone outside the game industry and has never actually played the game. At a basic level it is just like the movie "The Godfather", except you are playing one of the characters, not just watching them. The Godfather in shows up on the Time magazine top 100 movies of all time and makes their top 5 list since it shares the image banner with Psycho, E.T, Laurence of Arabia, and It's a wonderful life.

This article that addresses the topic.

Video games don't create killers, new book/harvard study says

The book is called Grand Theft Childhood.

Here are a couple of my favorite quotes from the article:

Many video game fans have embraced the pair as champions of the industry, a label that makes them uncomfortable.

"We're not comfortable doing pro and con. We've been asked to do the pro-game side in debates, and I don't consider myself a pro-game person. Video games are a medium," Olson said.

-

The researchers also try to place video games in a larger context of popular culture. The anxiety many parents voice over video games largely mirrors the concerns raised when movies, comic books and television became popular.

"One thing I like about their approach is that they've tried to historicize the whole concept of a media controversy and that we've seen this before," said Ian Bogost, a professor at Georgia Tech known for his studies on video games.

The book urges a common-sense approach that takes stock of the entire range of a child's behavior. Frequent fighting, bad grades, and obsessive gaming can be signs for trouble.

HIV/AIDS OC AIDS Walk

I'm walking in the OC AIDS Walk with RockHarbor. If you would like to help in the fight against HIV/AIDS, please sponsor me (before May 10).

I am also co-leading an HIV/AIDS community development and relief trip to Cape Town, South Africa this summer. We will be working in one of the poorest communities I have ever been to. Working with orphans and vulnerable children, business development and training in the community and HIV/AIDS relief, training and support. I've committed to raising $3500 for that trip and could use prayer and monetary support. If you would like more information on that, please send me an e-mail: wood@side8.com. I will send you a letter with more information. All donations to both trips are tax deductable.

Thanks,
Wood

EIX (Edison) on Buffet watch

Looks like Warren Buffett may follow me again. The last time he did this was on TTWO and that did really well for me (and him).

5 Stocks on Buffett Watch

Speaking of EIX, I do have one more purchase to make and I was considering making it today since it did go up (finally). I went to make the purchase and it looks like the USG purchase took most of the cash reserves and I'm now fully invested. I'll have to sell something to buy something and currently I'm happy with all the positions. Looks like I'm on the wait and see for a while (hopefully).

TTWO - GTA4 tops $500 million in first week sales

That's what I've been talking about for months when you could still buy TTWO at 13.

"Grand Theft Auto" first week sales top $500 million.

The price held steady because people already expected this to be huge, but I don't think anyone expected this to be that huge. The previous record for an entertainment release was Pirates of the Carribean which brought in around $400 million. That beats the previous record by 25%. I don't think the entertainment industry has figured this stuff out yet, but gaming is huge. Looking at the $2 billion dollar offer from EA to buy TTWO last month I start to wonder what people would think of a $2 billion dollar offer for Universal Pictures? I know they are much more diversified than TTWO or EA, but do the math and it doesn't take long to figure out that TTWO is going to be worth a lot more than it currently is.

USG

I've been holding a small amount of USG (building materials) for a while now. I bought it too early, but I do think that building stocks are going to recover at some point and the best time to buy stuff is when it is low, right? So, after the close yesterday I decided to tripple down on my USG holding taking it from a 1.2% hoding to a 3.6% holding. It was currently down about 20% so this will definitely offset the loss a little.

The Next Big Bargain

Buffet followed me on TTWO so I figure we both must have similar investment strategies??

How do you know an investment is probably safe...?

I don't know much about investing except buy low and sell high, but I do know one thing. When you see an article like this.

Fannie Mae posts loss, to cut payout, raise capital

And then the stock goes up 8.91% you are probably holding something that has hit bottom. Plus if it drops 20% the next day you are really only out 11.09%.

I'm kicking myself because I almost bought some more AMD, just a small amount (<1% of my account) and it went up today by 9.04%. Looks like I might finally recover some of my losses in AMD so my account is feeling good today, but as usual, tomorrow is another day and it'll probably be down again. It is really nice to have an account that I don't take too seriously.

Another EIX (Edison) purchase

I added another 1% (of my account) purchase of EIX/Edison. This puts me at 3% and I'm trying to get to 4%. It has been falling since my first purchase and I'm going to make the last 1% purchase when it has an up day. Earnings are announced on Thursday and we'll see what happens then. It isn't looking good, but I'm holding this to fight inflation and I think this is a long term holding.

EIX (Edison) purchase

I'm missing my GLD (Gold) and SLV (Silver) hedges against inflation. I did some digging and found that big caps are good and I've been buying those lateley, but I also learned that utilities are good since they also just raise prices with inflation. So I made a 1.9% of my account purchase in EIX (Edison) at 53.09. I almost made it a 4% purchase, but I'm going to split it into two purchases so you'll probably see another buy next week.

My account did a nice uptick yesterday thanks to DRIV, SNE and ATVI. I don't expect it to hold, but it is nice to see positive days.

Current Holdings Starting May 2008

Symbol	Paid	Cur	Acct Pct	Gain/Loss
ATVI	$13.44	27.05	24%	101%
TTWO	$16.18	26.24	18%	62%
SNE	$43.88	$45.79	9%	5%
DRIV	$47.72	32.85	7%	-31%
GE	$34.70	32.70	7%	-6%
IBM	$117.07	120.70	7%	3%
FNM	$24.52	28.30	5%	15%
FRE	$23.11	24.91	4%	8%
EDD	$19.79	$7.57	3%	-11%
AMD	$13.69	5.96	3%	-56%
STMP	$12.98	13.71	2%	6%
USG	$46.99	$5.31	1%	-25%
TIVO	$5.89	8.23	1%	40%
JAVA	$17.27	15.66	1%	-9%
CASH		–	6%

Those are the current holdings as of the end of trading on April 29, 2008 and the beginning of Trading on May 1, 2008.

That is up 1% for the month and up 8.1% for the year. The account has been fluctuating up and down by 2% all month. It was up about 2% up until just before the market closed. All and all a good month. GE got hammered and I held it. STMP made a huge recovery. SNE went up 5% since I've owned it for just a few weeks and I can't complain. It offset the loss in GE. TTWO passed the week I've been waiting a long time for. IBM made a move and dropped back down a little and I'm very happy with it. I shouldn't have sold AAPL, except for the fact that I sleep better.